为什么俄罗斯无法拥有中国式的经济规模

by 神秘人 at 2020-08-12

What prevents Russia from having an economy akin to modern China?

是什么原因让俄罗斯无法拥有现代中国式的经济规模?

Quora读者的评论:

Khandu Patel, Gentleman of Leisure at The United Kingdom (2014-present)

Russia was already an industrialised country, a process forced upon it by World War II while China was an undeveloped economy.

All things considered, Russia’s per capita income of $10,000 dollar stills puts it above China’s $8,000 which means China still has some catching up to do with Russia. China sets itself apart from Russia in that it has strong fundamentals in its savings and currency reserves. Russia’s economy is hobbled by the West’s policy of isolating and punishment meted out to it while China gets away with murder and can hardly do any wrong.

Russia’s 150 million population today makes it a middling power whereas it was regarded as great power in the 19th century and a super power in the 20th century when it was the USSR. If it has aspirations to be a great power again, it has to prevent its population (like that of Europe’s) from vanishing because of its low birthrate and aging population. It seems that the Russian people have responded to Putin’s exhortation to do just that with his uncompromising nationalism. This cannot be said of Germany and even the UK which has been importing many millions of Muslims to make up for their demographic deficits.

Things that are really important cannot be measured by the yardstick of an economy’s performance. Russia and China are uncompromising on what constitutes their core values and identity. There is no reason to doubt that their future is in doubt. The same cannot be said of many nations in Europe. Europe should be really grateful if Russia was to rescue it from their misguided liberal elites.

俄罗斯本来已经是一个工业化国家了,只是被二战打断了,而中国当时还是一个不发达的经济体。

综合考虑,俄罗斯人均收入1万美元仍高于中国的8000美元的水平,这意味着中国距离俄罗斯还有一定的发展空间。中国与俄罗斯的不同之处在于,中国在储蓄和外汇储备方面很强。俄罗斯的经济受到西方的孤立和惩罚,而中国却逍遥法外,没有什么约束。

俄罗斯今天有1.5亿人口,是一个中等大国,而在19世纪它被视为大国,在20世纪它以su联的形式存在,也是一个超级大国。如果它希望再次崛起,就必须防止其人口(像欧洲的人口)因低出生率和老龄化而不断下降。似乎俄罗斯人民已经对普京的劝说做出了回应。德国,甚至英国,都做不到。英国已经进口了数百万来弥补他们的人口赤字。

真正重要的事情无法用衡量经济表现的尺度来衡量。俄罗斯和中国在构成其核心价值观和身份问题的内容上毫不妥协。他们的未来是毋庸置疑的。欧洲的许多国家都做不到。如果俄罗斯要从他们被误导的自游主义精英手中拯救欧洲,欧洲各国应该感激不尽吧。

Dima Vorobiev, former Propaganda Executive at Russia

Three main reasons:

We don’t have the huge reservoir of workforce in the Chinese countryside to build up the epic manufacturing capacity that drives the country. We hardly have manpower for the existing capacity. We got our countryside devastated in 1930s-1940s, and those who survived, moved to the cities in 1950s-1980s. We don’t have the Chinese work ethics. My impression is that the Chinese are busy every waking moment, and sit down only to eat or take a power nap. I know many Russians who are just like this, but it’s the Chinese consistency across the entire nation that blows my mind. We don’t have the Confucian ethics of responsibility among our elite. Our rulers hold themselves accountable only before the close circle of their family and friends, if anyone. The rest of nation for them is just a resource to be mined for whatever project they fancy to pursue. 三大原因:

1.我们没有中国农村那般庞大的劳动力储备来建立推动中国史诗般发展的制造能力。我们几乎没有足够的人力来维持现有的生产能力。我们的农村在20世纪30-40年代遭到破坏,那些幸存下来的人在20世纪50-80年代搬到了城市。

2.我们没有中国人那样的职业道德。我的印象是,中国人只要不在睡觉,每一刻都很忙,即便坐下来也只是为了吃顿饭或小睡一会儿。我知道很多俄罗斯人也是这样的,但是整体中国人的统一作风真的让我印象深刻。

3.我们的精英阶层没有儒家思想的责任感。我们的统治者只对家人和朋友的亲密圈子负责。对他们来说,其他同胞只是一种资源,可以加以利用,达到他们的目的。

Vladimir Abashkin, Current location: Russia

What prevents Russia from having an economy akin to modern China?

Soviet Union passed the phase where China currently is in 1950–1960. I.e. technically Russian Federation used to have economy akin to modern China. It became unsustainable in a long run and totally destroyed Russian demographics and the country itself.

Now Russian Federation is a chunk of USSR where 100+ years of capital investment into industry distributed among all the 15 republic for maximum efficiency were turned to zero with dissolution of the country and erection of borders where goods and resources used to flow freely.

And even mineral export revenues are invested into US treasuries, Swiss banks, UK offshores and overpriced houses in the French riviera.

是什么原因让俄罗斯无法拥有现代中国式的经济规模?

su联在1950年到1960年期间就已经超过了中国现在的水平。如:俄罗斯联邦曾经拥有类似于现代中国的经济规模。可是俄罗斯的经济无法维系,完全摧毁了俄罗斯的人口结构和国家本身。

现在,俄罗斯联邦是苏 联的一部分,su联时期,100多年来投入在工业的资本投资在15个共和国中分配,以实现最高效率,但随着苏 联的和边界的建立,货物和资源的自 由流动戛然而止。

甚至矿产出口的收入也被投资于美国国债、瑞士银行、英国离岸市场以及法国里维埃拉贵得离谱的房产。

Tom Gregory, former Engineer & Senior Executive Service at NASA (1957-1995)

“Pew Research polls Chinese public attitudes, and here are the numbers in recent years. Satisfaction with the direction of the country: 85 percent. Those who think they're better off than five years ago: 70 percent. Those who expect the future to be better: a whopping 82 percent.

China’s success over the last 30+ years cannot be ignored: a single party with a go nment goal of improving the citizens well-being, with a five year central plan, and with a go nment run by personnel selected from the brightest college graduates. Then a meritocracy for promotions. And decisions by a chain of multi person governing bodies. . (Thanks for the education on this goes to Godfree Roberts)

Could Russia adopt some of this?

皮尤研究所调查了中国公众的态度,以下是近年来的数据。对国家的满意度:85%。认为自己比五年前富裕的人:70%。期望未来会更好的人:高达82%。

中国在过去30多年中取得的成功不容忽视:一个以改善公民福祉为政府目标的单一政党,一个以五年为中心的计划,一个从最聪明的大学毕业生中挑选的人员组建而成的政府,任人唯贤,以及多人管理机构的决策。(感谢罗伯茨提供的信息)

俄罗斯能从中学一点吗?

Brian Chi Zhang, Engineer at Oscar Health (2018-present)

Hands and mouths.

In other word, population.

Russia inherited some fantastic advantageous prospects of USSR, but also lost one thing that was crucial to a strong economy: population.

If I was Putin, I'd start a major immigration incentive program to attract upwards of 200 Mil population to Russia, from India, China, Eastern Europe, and Africa, even South America a little bit. How to maintain race identity is another story.

Imagine the vast landmass and resources finally put to use. Climates might not be the best but trust me, combined with fine Vodka and a mixed racial population, Russia would be the next booming USA.

Just make sure not to elect a pumpkin head as your president ;)

手和嘴。

换句话说,人口。

俄罗斯继承了苏 联的一些极有利的优势,但也失去了一件对强大的经济至关重要的事情:人口。

如果我是普京,我会启动一项重大的移民激励计划,从印度、中国、东欧、非洲,甚至南美吸引2亿以上的人口移居俄罗斯。如何保持种族认同感是另一回事了。

想象一下广袤的陆地和最终能投入使用的资源。俄罗斯的气候也许不是最好的,但相信我,再加上优质的伏特加和种族混杂的人口,俄罗斯将是下一个繁荣的美国。

千万注意别选傻瓜当总统。

Jahan Baklat, works at Local and Municipal Government

Why should Russia having an economy akin to China ? I don't understand the logic inside, besides Chinese economy is not that strong and healthy, the inefficient state owned enterprise grows bigger every year, and the debt grows with them and China is literally forced to boosting its already huge amount of debt, because once the expansion of debt stops the economy will be hit hard like the US economy back in 2007. And Russia is having one of the lowest debt among major economies.

In China the grows of GDP is the ultimate goal because it covers the problem and brings legitimacy that the Chinese g-ent desperately needed. So the GDP must be growing at every year and at a certain rate preset by the goverment, no matter of cost. I can only say that the mentality is insane..

Russia is growing slow, because the country is still recovering from the 70 years of Soviet rule, 70 years without merchants and market, that's something you can't revert in a mere 20 years, Russia can only have proper growth when the younger generation with experience with the market came to power.

为什么俄罗斯的经济要跟中国比?我不明白这其中的逻辑何在,而且中国经济并没有那么强劲和健康,效率低下的国有企业的规模越来越臃肿,债务也随之增长,中国实际上被迫增加本已庞大的债务,因为一旦债务阔张停止,中国经济将像2007年的美国经济一样受到重创。俄罗斯是主要经济体中负债最低的国家之一。

在中国,GDP的增长是终极目标。因此,无论成本如何,每年GDP都必须以政府预设的一定速度增长。我只能说这种心态太疯狂了……

俄罗斯的经济增长缓慢,因为这个国家仍在从苏 联70年的统治中复苏,这70年中没有商人、没有市场,短短20年内是无法恢复的,只有当具备了市场经验的年轻一代长权时,俄罗斯才能增长。

Sergei Lopatin

Harsh climate and plenty of oil.

The climate makes industrial production an expensive proposition in Russia, in general non-competitive globally.

The harsh climate makes impossible Chinese-like rice-based agriculture, highly productive in terms of calories per day per land area unit.

Look at where the majority of modern Chinese production capacity is concentrated - on the territories where it never snows.

Low at how inexpensive Chinese everyday food is. This translates directly into much lower minimally acceptable salaries of Chinese workers.

Oil supports highly oligarchical organization of Russian economy.

恶劣的气候和充足的石油。

这种气候使俄罗斯的工业生产成本极高,总体而言,在全球范围内没有竞争力。

恶劣的气候使得俄罗斯人不可能像以水稻为基础的中国农业那样,以每片土地单位每天的卡路里为单位,拥有较高的生产效率。

看看现代中国的大部分生产能力集中在哪里——在从不下雪的地区。

中国的日常饮食非常便宜。这直接导致中国工人可接受的最低工资大大降低。

石油支撑着俄罗斯经济的高度寡头政治组织。

David Li, works at Hong Kong

oh simple, demographics and bad time to join the game. after the collapse of SU, russia population saw a steady decline. population are aging rapidly, there are many eldery make only a few bucks by selling goods in the street. Russia Expected to Lose 32 Million People by 2050 you see, russia is not competitive with a declining workforce with lots of elderly that needs to pension to surive while facing four economic crisis just after its independence, 1991 SU collapse and high inflation( icbms for sale),1998 bonds default(good bye ltcm), 2008 global meltdown and 2014 international sanctions. china has a workforce that is young and large to fill lots of job posts, with a international trade port(hong kong) that allows high volume of international funds to enter china, a long term player in manufacturing since 1980s, it obivious that russia could not win without adding some advantages that appeal to make goods or provide services while allowing investments.

哦,很简单,人口和参与世界经济的时机不佳。苏 联郑权垮台后,俄罗斯人口持续下降。人口迅速老龄化,有许多老人家在街上叫卖东西,只为赚取几块钱。预计到2050年,俄罗斯人口将减少3200万,你看,俄罗斯在面对独立后四次经济危机、1991年su联和高通胀(出售洲际弹道导弹)、1998年债券违约(再见,长期资本管理)、2008年全球金融危机和2014年国际制裁的情况下,凭借不断减少的劳动力、依赖养老金生活的老年人,是不具备什么竞争力的。而中国有一支年轻而庞大的劳动力队伍来填补大量的工作岗位,有一个国际贸易港(香港),允许大量的国际资本进入中国,是自20世纪80年代以来制造业的长期参与者,很明显,如果俄罗斯不多挖掘一些优势,在允许投资入境的同时制造商品或提供服务,俄罗斯并没有胜算。

Jalil Abdullayev, knows Korean

Population.

Russia simply does not have the population size that China has.

In terms of GDP per capita Russia is already well above China

人口。

俄罗斯根本没有中国那样的人口规模。

就人均GDP而言,俄罗斯已经远远高于中国

Alan Tam, lives in Singapore (1987-present)

Because former ussr was defeated by the US and China combined. Russian inherited the basically a pile of rubbish

因为前su联被美中联手击败。俄国人接手了一个烂摊子。但中国人更聪明,没有落入美国设下的陷阱

Elaine Liu

I am a Chinese and I admit that Chinese economy has many problems. But I think Chinese people really work harder than people in most countries. We know that Chinese population is large and the competitions are so fierce, everyone needs to work hard if he doesn’t want to be left behind. Under the circumstances that people work hard and proper reform plan, rapid economy growth is easy to achieve.

我是中国人,我承认中国经济存在很多问题。我认为中国人确实比大多数国家的人更努力工作。我们知道,中国人口众多,竞争如此激烈,每个人如果不想落于人后,都需要努力工作。在人们努力工作、制定合理的改革方案的情况下,经济的快速增长是很容易实现的。

Kees van Bemmelen, former Retired Dutch Journalist

re the first of the three reasons you mention: how about admitting some of the millions of refugees who escaped from war and other miseries in parts of the world relatively near Russia’s doorstep?

你提到的三个原因中,第一个是:在世界上一些相对靠近俄罗斯的地区,接纳数百万逃离战争和其他苦难的难民,怎么样?

Dmitry Anikeev, Boss (2007-present)

Lack of Death Penalty for co ption and large scale economic crime is the biggest obstacle to any Economy model in Russia.

没有对腐 败和大规模经济犯罪执行死刑,是俄罗斯经济模式的最大障碍。

Özgür Özcan,

No two economies are alike but one might underline that the sheer volume of cheap labor is the biggest advantage that China has over other countries in the region.

没有两个经济体是完全相同的,但有人可能会强调,廉价劳动力的绝对数量是中国相对于该地区其他国家的最大优势。

Jim Curtice

Have to open up to investment from all over.

必须对各地的投资敞开国门。

Erik Hille, SMU Economics PhD student with international experience

No projections has Russia ever coming close to China. China will soon have the largest global economy, and is projected to be the leader for some time with the US and India in 2nd and 3rd place possibly eventually switching their location in the order. The highest Russia ever gets on the long term projection is 6th and most projections don’t even have Russia above 10th.

Wiki has collected multiple sources estimates of this. China will become toeh global leader somewhere between 2020 and 2030.

没有人预测俄罗斯能接近中国。中国将很快成为全球最大的经济体,并预计在一段时间内成为领头羊,美国和印度将排在第二位和第三位,最终可能会按顺序更换位置。俄罗斯在长期预测中获得的最高值是第6位,大多数预测中俄罗斯都未能跻身前10位。

维基百科已经收集了多个来源的预测。中国将在2020年到2030年间成为全球的领头羊。

Alexander Gnum, lived in Siberia (1972-2002)

God only knows what is ahead of us and no predictions are certain. One thing that can be said though.

From the automobile making industry we learned that no matter how large the manufacturer business is, it only takes three unsuccessful car models to ruin it. The same may be true for industrial nations. No matter how large the economy is, still it takes just a few bad years to ruin it. There is no safety in numbers. The larger you are the larger your expenses and risks are.

You can think of it in terms of rent or a workforce. Say you have a large hotel in your ownership. When it is full of guests it makes lots of money. When it stays empty, however, it pours your money out of your pocket at the similar rate. Idle workforce is like an army that eats a lot, but does not produce anything in return. It is very very expensive. The more people you have at your command, the larger the risk of having them out of their jobs.

只有上帝知道我们的未来,任何预测都不可能很准确。

从汽车制造业中我们了解到,无论制造商的业务版图有多大,只要三个车型不成功,就足以毁掉这个企业。工业国家也可能如此。不管经济体量有多大,只要几年的不景气就可以毁掉这个国家。人口无法带来安全感。人口越庞大,开支和风险就越大。

你可以从租金或劳动力的角度来考虑。假设你拥有一家大酒店。客满时,酒店能赚很多钱。但当它空置时,就会以同样的速度把你的钱从口袋里挖出来。闲散的劳动力就像一支终日饱食却无以回报的军队。这是十分昂贵的事。你统领的人越多,他们失业的风险就越大。