在东南亚,哪个国家的前景最黯淡?

by 神秘人 at 2020-08-01

What countries in Southeast Asia have the darkest future? Why?

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“Thailand has large exposure as a tourism hub, close to 15% of GDP, and it also has large exposure of the export-oriented sector,” said Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior economist for Thailand at the World Bank. “Hence the large shock to GDP.” Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict Thailand’s economy will contract more than others in Southeast Asia, at 6%, and with a weaker rebound in 2021 of 4%. Here’s what’s weighing down the Thai economy:

世界银行泰国高级经济学家Kiatipong Ariyapruchya表示:“泰国作为一个旅游中心,有着巨大的风险,旅游业占其国内生产总值的近15%,同时泰国还有大量的出口导向部门。”因此泰国GDP会遭受巨大冲击。” 彭博社调查的分析师预测,泰国经济收缩幅度将超过东南亚其他国家,其GDP降幅将为6%,2021年的经济反弹后、下降幅度将降至4%。 以下是拖累泰国经济的因素:0

  1. The state of emergency, nighttime curfew and business closings imposed across the country to fight the virus have crushed private consumption and investment, which were already on a modest downtrend last year. Purchases are expected to pick up as the lockdown restrictions are lifted and as government stimulus measures filter through to the economy, but investors could be slow to return given the gloomy prospects.
  2. Thailand recorded no foreign tourist arrivals or receipts for a second straight month in May as the pandemic forced border closings. Annual tourist arrivals are forecast to drop to 8 million, just one-fifth of last year’s total.
  3. Despite plans for travel bubbles with sext countries, Thai authorities are proceeding to open the country slowly and carefully. Efforts to kindle domestic tourism won’t offset the tremendous losses to this critical industry, which last year made up about one-fifth of Thailand’s economy.
  4. Golden Distortion
  5. Surges in gold shipments are exception to otherwise weak Thai exports
  6. At first glance, Thai exports appear to have held up relatively well this year, contracting for only two of the first five months of 2020.
  7. As it turns out, distortions in one commodity have helped cushion the overall blow. Rising gold prices during the outbreak have led local investors to sell gold, boosting total exports. Excluding gold, total shipments have been hit hard by weak global demand and supply-chain disruptions.

泰国各地为抗击病毒而实施的紧急状态、包括宵禁和企业关张,这抑制了私人消费和投资,而泰国的消费和投资在去年就已经处于缓慢下降的趋势了。随着封锁解除、加之政府对经济的刺激措施,预计购买力将会增加,但鉴于泰国前景黯淡,投资者可能会迟迟不愿回归。 截止5月份,泰国已经连续两个月没有外国游客入境了,因为疫情大流行迫使边境关闭。据预测,今年游客人数将下降至800万,仅为去年游客总数的五分之一。 尽管泰国政府计划与一些国家建立旅游计划(泡沫),但泰国当局仍在缓慢而谨慎地开放该国。刺激国内旅游业的努力并不能抵消这一关键产业的巨大损失,该行业去年占泰国经济的五分之一左右。 .黄金价格扭曲 黄金出货量激增是泰国出口疲软的一个例外 乍一看,泰国今年的出口似乎保持得比较好,2020年前5个月中、仅有两个月出现萎缩 事实证明,一种商品价格的扭曲对于整体损失有缓冲作用。疫情爆发期间金价上涨也导致当地投资者抛售黄金,这提振了出口总额。但除了黄金外,全球需求疲软和供应链中断、严重打击了泰国的出口总额。0

Sources: Bank of Thailand, Bank for International Settlements data compiled by Bloomberg Economics

资料来源:泰国银行、国际清算银行,数据由彭博社编制。0 0 Siriya Tiensakul Once. Thailand tops high risk countries from coronavirus, says study. Now Thailand economic outlook is worst in Asia. New economic team is coming as the old team resigned yesterday. Just wait and see.

之前:研究显示,泰国是新冠病毒感染风险最高的国家 现在:泰国是亚洲经济前景最差的国家 泰国的新经济团队来了,老经济团队昨天辞职了,等着瞧吧!0 0 0 0 Chujinsa Chu Agree with some of your comment. However I beg to differ with some. Hope you don’t mind my explain below. 1. Number of universities. According to your words …Check the number of universities by countries and Thailand is way behind Vietnam and Philippines. A good tertiary education will help them to achieve the target of industry 4.0 …. >>> I think you would not take the number of population in each country into account. Thailand is a lot less from the two you mentioned — for example the Philippines has about 11–12 millions. Thailand has only about 6-7 M. It’s like somebody who questioned why Singapore has fewer universities compared to India. In fact many of the minor universities in TH are predicted to be closed in the future due to lower rates of enrollment. There are articles about this topic. Please do your own research. Quality is what they should focus, not quantity. Overall TH universities rankings, according to many accepted agency eg. QS and Time Higher Education, in the world is just so-so. Among ASEAN, they are OK (Rankings of universities in South East Asia - Wikipedia) Anyway there are still a long way to go.

同意你的一些评论。不过有些评论我不同意,希望你不介意我下面的解释。 1大学数量。 根据你的话…“去查查各国的大学数量,泰国远远落后于越南和菲律宾。良好的高等教育将帮助他们实现工业4.0的目标。”。>>>我想你没有考虑到各个国家的人口数量,泰国的人口比你提到的那两个国家要少得多,比如菲律宾有大约1.1亿到1.2亿,而泰国只有6-7千万,就像有人质疑为什么新加坡的大学比印度少。事实上,由于入学率较低,预计泰国许多辅修大学将关闭,网上有关于这个话题的文章,请你自己去研究一下。应该关注的是质量、而不是数量。根据许多公认的机构,如“Q”S和“泰晤士高等教育”,泰国在世界上排名比较一般,但在东盟中,泰国还行(东南亚大学排名-维基百科),不管怎样,他们还有很长的路要走。0 2. Not from this question but from your answer regarding Thailand in another one. You said that …other cities other than bangkok still has lots of issues like the MRT in Bangkok not even there in Pattaya or Chiang mai… >>> They have already started. See an example here Chiang Mai light rail transit - Wikipedia. Also they plan to do that in some other provinces as I know so far. Again, do your own research if interested. BTW Hope you don’t mind reread the question How developed is Thailand compared to the Philippines? (How developed is Thailand compared to the Philippines?)

2不是从这个问题出发,而是从你对泰国的另一个回答出发。你说…“曼谷以外的其他城市还有很多问题,比如曼谷地铁,甚至芭堤雅和清迈都没有地铁”……>>>他们已经开始了建了,请看一个例子-- 维基百科:清迈轻轨项目。另外,据我所知,他们还计划在其他一些省份建设地铁。同样,如果有兴趣,请你自己研究一下。顺便说一句,希望你不介意重读一读这个问题,链接:泰国与菲律宾相比有多发达?0 3. Car. I can tell you that TH will not produce their own car. You forget about business sir. We all can produce our own car of our country, but if it’s worth your cost is another story. Honestly I doubt why many including some Thai think the way you do esp. To produce a car which worth your cost of production you need a very big market – I mean aboard. We are not that big compare to your country India, China, or even Indonesia. Now, do you think you and your countrymen, as Indians, would buy Thai cars? Reputation of the products? Marketing? Your competitors? Barrier? etc. There are lots more factors to consider. It’s like what Mr. Jack Welsh of General Electric said long ago "If you don''''t have a competitive advantage, don''''t compete." It’s not just “produce” something and all done. Our neighbors do that. Some do that for decades. They aren’t work. We learn from them. Again, do your own research. I playfully thought that if TH really need a car of their own, better buy a small company abroad –- the way some Chinese companies did — instead of starting from nothing. At least that company got their own market share/reputation. BTW if you do deep research you would know that regarding produce their own car TH is more focus on 1.niche market like military cars 2. new possibility of trend in car industry. I didn’t mean they would produce the car with new technology. I mean they planned to take advantage from the wave of that trend. Anyway it’s in the future so it might and might not work.

  1. 汽车。 我可以告诉你:泰国不会生产自己的汽车,但是先生、你忘了这是一门生意,我们都可以生产自己国家的汽车,但成本上是否值得就另当别论了。老实说,我好奇为什么很多人会这样想(包括一些泰国人)。为了造出一辆生产成本上划算的汽车,你需要一个非常庞大的市场 --- 我是说国外市场。与你的国家印度、中国,甚至印尼相比,我们的市场并没有那么大。 好了,作为印度人,你和你的同胞会购买泰国车吗?产品的声誉如何?市场营销呢?你的竞争对手如何?存在什么障碍?还有很多因素需要考虑。这就像通用电气公司的Jack Welsh先生很久以前说过的:“如果你没有竞争优势,就不要去竞争”,这里说的竞争不仅仅是“生产”某件商品,对于所有事情都适用。我们的邻居试过,有些国家都试了几十年了,然后并不起作用。我们从他们身上学到了教训。再说一次,请自己多做做功课。 我觉得,如果真的需要一辆自己的汽车,最好在国外收购一家小公司 --- 就像一些中国公司那样,而不是白手起家。至少那家公司有自己的市场份额/声誉。顺便说一句,如果你做一些深入的研究,你就会知道,相比生产自己的汽车,泰国更关注的是 1、小众市场,如军用车辆。 2、汽车工业发展趋势新的可能性。我不是说泰国会用新技术生产汽车,我是说他们会计划利用这股潮流。不管怎么说,这是将来的事,所以可能会起作用、也可能不会起作用。0
  2. incentives to families to have more babies and change the old age demographics since it is also acting as a time bomb… >>> Agree with the aging society. We do know and we try to solve it (or should I say lessen the problem) but not in your way of thinking by increasing the birth rate. I would not state it here what they are doing, plus it’s still a long way, but I would say that I’ve seen, even in Quora, some foreigners see through and mentioned of what we are doing with this issue –Taiwanese (which kind of surprise since their relationship with TH is not that close compare to others), Singaporean (not just see and understand what we are doing but also move to gain their benefits from it) for example. Haven’t seen mainland Chinese said anything since I didn’t do much research due to time but from my observation they know and move to gain their advantage as well. No offense sir but we do know you and China are competing with each other. Anyway I hardly see that you understand what your neighbors, not just TH but all.

  3. 鼓励家庭多生孩子了,改变老龄化的人口结构,因为这也是一个定时炸弹…>>我同意泰国社会已经老龄化,我们确实知道这种状况、并试图解决这个问题(或者我应该说缓解这个问题),但不是以你的思维方式来实现(通过提高出生率)。我不想在这里说泰国在做什么,而且他们还有很长的路要走。但我要说的是,我已经看到一些外国人看透了这个现象(甚至在QA上也有见到),并提到了我们在人口老龄化问题上所做的事 --- 比如台湾人(惊喜吧?因为相比于其他国家,台湾与泰国的联系没有那么密切)、新加坡人(不仅看穿了我们、并了解到我们在做什么,而且已经采取行动从中获利),目前还没有看到中国大陆人对我们说过什么。由于时间的关系,我没有做太多的研究,但从我的观察来看,中国大陆人也知晓泰国的这一现状了、并采取行动来获得优势。 无意冒犯,先生,但我们知道你们和中国正在相互竞争。不管怎样,我几乎看不出你对你们的邻居有任何了解,不仅是对泰国,你们对所有邻居都没有任何了解。0 Abhishek Das

  4. Doesn't matter Indonesia has 280 million people but both China India has 1.4 billion people yet India has somewhere 4000 universities and indonesia is a notch up than China . I like how thais invest in malls and there are plenty of malls so it''''s not a population thing it''''s a priority.
  5. Building ur own car and to reach a level to export is a costly affair but told this since when ur wages are rising up and ur baht is strong,many companies will Try to move to Cambodia, Vietnam is they rise and have that kind of skills infrastructure in future
  6. Yes Thailand will have a metro in other cities nothing wrong with that. It's not even related to this question though infact Thailand has invested good amount of money in highways , internet etc. No complain about this though.
  7. Fourth one I mentioned this because Russia is trying this method too. You just can''''t force people to have babies. At least financially thais are richer than Russians and can apply this.

1.人口并不相干,印尼有2.8亿人口,但中国和印度都有14亿人口,然而印度有大约4000所大学,印尼的大学比中国还多。我喜欢泰国人投资购物中心的方式,那里有很多购物中心,所以这并不是人口问题,而是优先考虑的问题。 2.制造自己的汽车并达到出口水、是一件代价高昂的事情,但它告诉我们,当你的工资上涨、泰铢坚挺时,许多公司都会试图转移到柬埔寨、越南,他们是否会崛起,并在未来拥有这种技能和基础设施? 3.是的,泰国在其他城市也将会有地铁,这没什么不好的。这甚至与这个问题无关,尽管事实上泰国在高速公路、互联网等方面投入了大量资金,我并没有抱怨这个。 4.第四条,个我提到这一点是因为俄罗斯也在尝试这种方法,你不能强迫人们生孩子。至少在经济上,泰国人比俄罗斯人富裕,你们可以尝试俄罗斯的方法。0 Chujinsa Chu Based on you university comment, it seems like you preferred quantity over quality, which is not my type. Also i look like you are stuck with mall things sir. sir.

根据你大学的评论,你似乎更在意数量而不是质量,这不是我喜欢的类型。先生,在我看来,你好像太过沉迷于购物中心这种东西了。0

Yap You Wai Which countries in SEA have the darkest future? Guess the term, “darkest” or “dark” is a tad gloomy and might not be so suitably used in our forecast or speculation? [1] There’s this tiny country called Timor Leste which was released from the grasp of Indonesia not so long ago? The country has a small oil exploration but apart from that nothing much else? The half island has some pristine beaches but they need investment to be developed into resorts and the Auth’s solid plan to promote tourism? At present, the education level of the pop. is rather low and really in need of an upgrade. Highly challenging…… [2] There’s another smallish country located btwn Sabah & Sarawak, both in the Federation of M’sia, in the north of Borneo known as Brunei? It has been ruled by the only Sultan since gaining independence from the Brits and its development was previously financed by oil revenue. But as oil price is on the decline and the demand for oil is less certain going fwd, Brunei’s future isn’t very bright? Also, the Sultan is growing old and the successor might not be able to manage the Admin as well?

哪个东南亚国家的前景最黯淡? 看看这个词,“最黯淡”或“黯淡”有点悲观了,用在预测或猜测中、可能有点不合时宜。 1)有一个叫做东帝汶的小国,不久前从印度尼西亚独立了?这个国家勘探出了少量的石油,除此之外,其他什么都没有?这个半岛有一些原始的海滩,但它们需要投资开发才能成为度假胜地,也需要当局促进旅游业的可靠计划。而目前,该国人口的受教育程度相当低,确实需要升级了,这是极具挑战性的……

[2] 还有另一个小国家位于沙巴洲和沙捞越洲之间,这两个岛屿都属于马来西亚联邦,位于文莱婆罗洲的北部?自脱离英国独立以来,它一直由同一位的苏丹(译注:某些穆斯林国家统治者的称号)统治,它的发展以前是靠石油收入,但随着油价的下跌,石油的需求量也不太明朗,文莱的未来也不是很光明吧?另外,现任苏丹正在变老,其继任者也可能无法胜任?0

Wasut Pornpatcharapong Amongst major SEA economies (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam), the title belongs to Thailand. We have looming demographics time bomb, and we got stuck in the middle income trap. We fail to ride the wave of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Compared to other major SEA economies, we don''''t even have unicorns.

在主要的东南亚经济体(新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国、菲律宾、越南)中,“前景最暗淡”这个称号当属于泰国。 我们有一颗隐隐可见的人口统计学定时炸弹,我们陷入了中等收入陷阱。我们未能赶上第四次工业革命的浪潮。与其他主要的东南亚经济体相比,我们甚至没有独角兽企业。0

We are also mired in political instability, and we are destined to be greatly affected by global warming (Bangkok is slightly above the sea level). With COVID-19, tourism as an industry that provides much-needed hard currency for our economy also came to a screeching halt. Our income inequality is also among the worst in the world. But development and progress are dynamical. Thailand''''s prospects may seem so bleak now, but hey, who knows what the future may hold? Maybe someday someone will come in and turn things around.

我们还深深陷入了政治不稳定的泥潭,我们注定会受到全球变暖的严重影响(曼谷的海拔仅略高于海平面)。再加上新冠疫情,作为一个为我们经济提供急需的硬通货的行业、旅游业也突然停止了增长,我们的收入不平等也是全世界最严重的。 但是发展和进步是动态的,在现在看来、泰国的未来看起来很是暗淡,但谁知道呢?也许有一天会有人扭转局面。0 Erwin Anciano The Philippines to be honest is largely in the same boat. We don’t have the demographic time bomb problem but we have a lot of other problems too. If I had to rank it though we’re just slightly above Thailand for future prospects. This is how I’d rate it from brightest to darkest. · Singapore · Malaysia · Indonesia · Vietnam · Philippines · Thailand

老实说,菲律宾在很大程度上跟你们在一条船上 我们菲律宾没有人口统计学上的定时炸弹问题,但我们也有很多其他问题。如果不得不给出一个排名的话(尽管我们的未来前景仅略高于泰国),以下是我对东南亚前景最好到最暗淡国家的排名: ·新加坡 ·马来西亚 ·印度尼西亚 ·越南 ·菲律宾 ·泰国0 Wasut Pornpatcharapong I agree. That''''s a good assessment.

同意,评估得很不错0 Joey Guadalupe Vietnam has worst population demographic time bomb than thailand. But theyll get by, and i believe thailand will too.

越南的人口统计学定时炸弹问题最严重,比泰国还严重。但他们会克服的,我相信泰国也能克服。0 Hu Shi Xiong Lol I was thinking in comparison with current status Singapore has the darkest

哈哈哈,我在想,与目前的情况相比、新加坡才是最暗淡的0 Joey Guadalupe Singapore is not the darkest as it is heavily reliant to immigrants.

新加坡不是最暗淡的,因为新加坡严重依赖移民。0 Hu Shi Xiong There is less room for growth in my opinion. But its because I feel you could within 2 generations pull your socks up in development

在我看来,新加坡的增长空间很小了,但这是因为我觉得你们可以在两代人时间内发展起来。0 udha IMO Singapore is overated because her Tiny demographic cant sustaint any longer besides higher cost of living among ASEAN . Indonesia today just warms up before progresssing on next years

哈哈哈,新加坡被过誉了,因为新加坡过少的人口再也撑不下去了,此外,在东盟国家中,新加坡的生活成本也更高0

Alison Alcantara Ng , lives in Southeast Asia Sadly for me, I think the country with the darkest future in Southeast Asia are those that are the most at risk with climate change. Since climate change creates, intense cyclones, excessive rainfall and severe floods that damages the development of the country, wasting million if not billions of money which could have been used to uplift the lives of the citizens in the country.

我很难过,我认为东南亚前景最黯淡的国家、正是在气候变化方面风险最大的国家。由于气候变化造成了强烈的旋风、过多的降雨和严重的洪水,破坏了国家的发展,浪费了数百万甚至数十亿的资金,这些钱本可以用来改善这些国家公民的生活。0

Southeast Asia Countries most at risk by climate change

受气候变化影响最大的东南亚国家0 So that would give us: Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam +2 for the Philippines because it is located at the Pacific Ring of Fire (Volcanic Eruptions, Earthquakes) and Pacific Typhoon Belt. Of course they could prevent having the darkest future by implementing stretegies to mitigate the effects of climate change. We will see in the future. Note: This is just my own opinion you are free to disagree.

因此,我们有了一个名单:缅甸、菲律宾和越南 菲律宾再加两分,因为它位于太平洋火山带(火山爆发、地震)和太平洋台风带。 当然了,他们也可以通过实施战略来缓解气候变化的影响,以防止出现最暗淡的前景,未来我们会看到的。 注意:这只是我个人的见解,你可以不同意。0 Quang Pham I think that it is the Philippines

我觉得是菲律宾